feat: add scenario watchlist

README.md

@@ -190,6 +190,39 @@ For Pangolin or another reverse proxy, forward HTTP traffic to `intelligence-ter
 
 The dashboard Terminal Actions panel can trigger `status`, `sweep`, and `brief` through `/api/action`. Leave `TERMINAL_ACTIONS_ENABLED=true` for a private home-server deployment. For an internet-exposed deployment, set `SWEEP_TOKEN` and pass it through trusted automation, or set `TERMINAL_ACTIONS_ENABLED=false` to disable browser-triggered actions. If you protect actions with `SWEEP_TOKEN`, the browser can send it from `localStorage.crucix_sweep_token`.
 
+#### Scenario Watchlist
+
+Crucix can track operator hypotheses across sweeps with a runtime scenario file at `runs/scenarios.json`. On first run, the server creates three disabled starter examples:
+
+- Middle East energy shock
+- Macro stress spillover
+- Regional escalation risk
+
+Enable or add scenarios by editing `runs/scenarios.json`:
+
+```json
+{
+  "version": 1,
+  "scenarios": [
+    {
+      "id": "middle-east-energy-shock",
+      "enabled": true,
+      "name": "Middle East energy shock",
+      "description": "Energy supply risk building from regional conflict.",
+      "regions": ["Middle East", "Iran", "Strait of Hormuz"],
+      "categories": ["osint", "energy", "maritime"],
+      "keywords": ["missile", "strike", "hormuz", "oil"],
+      "thresholds": { "watching": 2, "building": 4, "confirmed": 7 },
+      "invalidation": "WTI normalizes and urgent regional signals fade."
+    }
+  ]
+}
+```
+
+Malformed scenario config degrades safely: sweeps continue and the dashboard shows the watchlist as a config issue. Scenario state is persisted in `runs/scenario-state.json`; delete that file to reset state transitions without deleting definitions.
+
+Scenario states are `dormant`, `watching`, `building`, and `confirmed`. The dashboard shows active scenario state, confidence, score, and recent trigger time. Briefings include a `Scenario Watchlist` section when one or more scenarios change state.
+
 #### Build And Publish Your Gitea Image
 
 ```bash