feat: add scenario watchlist

lib/scenarios.mjs

@@ -0,0 +1,212 @@
+import { existsSync, mkdirSync, readFileSync, writeFileSync } from 'fs';
+import { join } from 'path';
+
+const DEFAULT_SCENARIOS = [
+  {
+    id: 'middle-east-energy-shock',
+    enabled: false,
+    name: 'Middle East energy shock',
+    description: 'Energy supply risk building from Middle East conflict or chokepoint pressure.',
+    regions: ['Middle East', 'Iran', 'Israel', 'Strait of Hormuz'],
+    categories: ['osint', 'energy', 'maritime'],
+    keywords: ['missile', 'strike', 'hormuz', 'oil', 'energy', 'blockade'],
+    thresholds: { watching: 2, building: 4, confirmed: 7 },
+    invalidation: 'WTI normalizes and regional urgent signals fade for several sweeps.',
+  },
+  {
+    id: 'macro-stress-spillover',
+    enabled: false,
+    name: 'Macro stress spillover',
+    description: 'Market stress spreads from volatility into credit, rates, or commodities.',
+    regions: ['US', 'Global'],
+    categories: ['macro', 'markets'],
+    keywords: ['vix', 'spread', 'credit', 'yield', 'inflation', 'gold'],
+    thresholds: { watching: 2, building: 4, confirmed: 6 },
+    invalidation: 'VIX and credit stress both normalize while source health remains stable.',
+  },
+  {
+    id: 'regional-escalation-risk',
+    enabled: false,
+    name: 'Regional escalation risk',
+    description: 'Local conflict signals broaden across adjacent regions or source categories.',
+    regions: ['Ukraine', 'Taiwan', 'Africa', 'Middle East'],
+    categories: ['conflict', 'thermal', 'osint', 'air'],
+    keywords: ['mobilization', 'intercept', 'drone', 'ballistic', 'fatalities', 'border'],
+    thresholds: { watching: 2, building: 5, confirmed: 8 },
+    invalidation: 'No fresh cross-source escalation signals appear inside the configured horizon.',
+  },
+];
+
+export function evaluateScenarios(data, delta, runsDir) {
+  const loaded = loadScenarioDefinitions(runsDir);
+  if (!loaded.ok) {
+    return { available: false, error: loaded.error, items: [], changed: [] };
+  }
+
+  const statePath = join(runsDir, 'scenario-state.json');
+  const previous = readJson(statePath, {});
+  const evaluatedAt = data.meta?.timestamp || new Date().toISOString();
+  const corpus = buildCorpus(data, delta);
+  const items = loaded.scenarios.map(def => evaluateScenario(def, corpus, previous[def.id], evaluatedAt));
+  const changed = items.filter(item => item.changed);
+
+  writeJson(statePath, Object.fromEntries(items.map(item => [item.id, {
+    state: item.state,
+    score: item.score,
+    confidence: item.confidence,
+    lastTriggerTime: item.lastTriggerTime,
+    updatedAt: evaluatedAt,
+  }])));
+
+  return {
+    available: true,
+    path: loaded.path,
+    items,
+    changed,
+  };
+}
+
+export function loadScenarioDefinitions(runsDir) {
+  const path = join(runsDir, 'scenarios.json');
+  try {
+    if (!existsSync(runsDir)) mkdirSync(runsDir, { recursive: true });
+    if (!existsSync(path)) {
+      writeJson(path, {
+        version: 1,
+        scenarios: DEFAULT_SCENARIOS,
+      });
+    }
+    const raw = JSON.parse(readFileSync(path, 'utf8'));
+    if (!raw || !Array.isArray(raw.scenarios)) throw new Error('scenarios must be an array');
+    const scenarios = raw.scenarios
+      .map(normalizeScenario)
+      .filter(Boolean);
+    return { ok: true, path, scenarios };
+  } catch (err) {
+    return { ok: false, path, error: err.message };
+  }
+}
+
+function normalizeScenario(input) {
+  if (!input || typeof input !== 'object') return null;
+  const id = String(input.id || input.name || '').trim().toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9]+/g, '-').replace(/^-|-$/g, '');
+  const name = String(input.name || input.id || '').trim();
+  if (!id || !name) return null;
+  const thresholds = input.thresholds || {};
+  return {
+    id,
+    enabled: input.enabled === true,
+    name,
+    description: String(input.description || ''),
+    regions: arrayOfStrings(input.regions),
+    categories: arrayOfStrings(input.categories),
+    keywords: arrayOfStrings(input.keywords).map(s => s.toLowerCase()),
+    thresholds: {
+      watching: Number(thresholds.watching || 2),
+      building: Number(thresholds.building || 4),
+      confirmed: Number(thresholds.confirmed || 7),
+    },
+    invalidation: String(input.invalidation || ''),
+  };
+}
+
+function evaluateScenario(def, corpus, previous, evaluatedAt) {
+  if (!def.enabled) {
+    return {
+      ...publicScenario(def),
+      state: 'dormant',
+      score: 0,
+      confidence: 0,
+      evidence: [],
+      changed: previous?.state && previous.state !== 'dormant',
+      lastTriggerTime: previous?.lastTriggerTime || null,
+    };
+  }
+
+  const evidence = [];
+  let score = 0;
+  for (const keyword of def.keywords) {
+    const hit = corpus.entries.find(entry => entry.text.includes(keyword));
+    if (hit) {
+      score += 1;
+      evidence.push({ type: 'keyword', label: keyword, source: hit.source, text: hit.original.slice(0, 180) });
+    }
+  }
+  for (const region of def.regions) {
+    const needle = region.toLowerCase();
+    const hit = corpus.entries.find(entry => entry.text.includes(needle));
+    if (hit) {
+      score += 1;
+      evidence.push({ type: 'region', label: region, source: hit.source, text: hit.original.slice(0, 180) });
+    }
+  }
+  for (const category of def.categories) {
+    if (corpus.categories.has(category.toLowerCase())) {
+      score += 1;
+      evidence.push({ type: 'category', label: category, source: 'sweep', text: `${category} category active` });
+    }
+  }
+
+  const state = score >= def.thresholds.confirmed ? 'confirmed'
+    : score >= def.thresholds.building ? 'building'
+      : score >= def.thresholds.watching ? 'watching'
+        : 'dormant';
+  const confidence = Math.min(100, Math.round((score / Math.max(1, def.thresholds.confirmed)) * 100));
+  const changed = previous?.state ? previous.state !== state : state !== 'dormant';
+  return {
+    ...publicScenario(def),
+    state,
+    score,
+    confidence,
+    evidence: evidence.slice(0, 6),
+    changed,
+    lastTriggerTime: state === 'dormant' ? (previous?.lastTriggerTime || null) : evaluatedAt,
+  };
+}
+
+function publicScenario(def) {
+  return {
+    id: def.id,
+    name: def.name,
+    description: def.description,
+    enabled: def.enabled,
+    invalidation: def.invalidation,
+  };
+}
+
+function buildCorpus(data, delta) {
+  const entries = [];
+  const categories = new Set();
+  const push = (source, text, category) => {
+    if (!text) return;
+    entries.push({ source, original: String(text), text: String(text).toLowerCase() });
+    if (category) categories.add(category);
+  };
+
+  for (const signal of data.tSignals || []) push('thermal', signal, 'thermal');
+  for (const post of data.tg?.urgent || []) push(post.channel || 'telegram', post.text, 'osint');
+  for (const item of data.newsFeed || []) push(item.source || 'news', item.headline || item.title, 'news');
+  for (const item of data.news || []) push(item.source || 'news', item.headline || item.title, 'news');
+  for (const item of data.acled?.deadliestEvents || []) push('ACLED', `${item.country || ''} ${item.location || ''} ${item.event_type || ''} ${item.fatalities || ''}`, 'conflict');
+  for (const item of data.air || []) push('OpenSky', `${item.region} ${item.total} aircraft`, 'air');
+  for (const item of data.chokepoints || []) push('Maritime', `${item.label} ${item.note}`, 'maritime');
+  if (data.energy?.wti || data.energy?.brent) push('energy', `WTI ${data.energy.wti} Brent ${data.energy.brent}`, 'energy');
+  if (data.markets?.vix || data.fred?.some(f => f.id === 'VIXCLS')) push('markets', 'VIX volatility market stress', 'markets');
+  if (delta?.summary) push('delta', `${delta.summary.direction} ${delta.summary.totalChanges} changes ${delta.summary.criticalChanges} critical`, 'delta');
+  for (const signal of delta?.signals?.new || []) push('delta', signal.label || signal.reason || signal.key, 'delta');
+  for (const signal of delta?.signals?.escalated || []) push('delta', signal.label || signal.reason || signal.key, 'delta');
+
+  return { entries, categories };
+}
+
+function arrayOfStrings(value) {
+  return Array.isArray(value) ? value.map(v => String(v).trim()).filter(Boolean) : [];
+}
+
+function readJson(path, fallback) {
+  try { return JSON.parse(readFileSync(path, 'utf8')); } catch { return fallback; }
+}
+
+function writeJson(path, value) {
+  writeFileSync(path, JSON.stringify(value, null, 2));
+}