[Feature] Scenario Watchlist and Hypothesis Tracker #26

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MrSphay · 2026-05-17T12:26:23Z

MrSphay commented

2026-05-17 12:26:23 +00:00

Summary

Add a Scenario Watchlist that lets operators define hypotheses such as "Middle East energy shock", "macro stress spillover", or "regional escalation risk" and track them across live Crucix sources over time.

Why This Matters

Crucix currently produces sweeps and briefings, but operators need a persistent way to follow a thesis from first weak signal to confirmed regime shift. This feature turns the terminal from a live dashboard into an analyst workflow tool.

Scope

Bug fix: No
New source: No
Dashboard/UI change: Yes
LLM/provider change: Optional
Other: New persistence and scoring workflow

Proposed Behavior

Add a configurable list of scenarios/hypotheses with name, description, watched regions, watched source categories, keywords, and severity thresholds.
Each sweep evaluates scenarios against source output, delta signals, market data, and alert history.
Dashboard shows scenario state: dormant, watching, building, confirmed, invalidated.
Each scenario includes evidence links, last trigger time, confidence, and what would invalidate it.
Briefings include a short "Scenario Watchlist" section when one or more scenarios changed state.

Acceptance Criteria

Scenario definitions can be stored in config or a small JSON file under operator-owned runtime state.
Missing or malformed scenario config degrades safely and does not break sweeps.
At least 3 built-in starter scenarios ship disabled or as examples.
Unit tests cover matching, scoring, state transitions, and malformed config.
README documents the workflow and example scenarios.

Maintenance Impact

No new external provider is required. This adds product complexity around state, thresholds, and dashboard rendering. Future source additions should declare which scenario categories they can influence.

Additional Context

This pairs naturally with the existing delta engine, runs/ state, and Phase-1 memory store.

## Summary Add a Scenario Watchlist that lets operators define hypotheses such as "Middle East energy shock", "macro stress spillover", or "regional escalation risk" and track them across live Crucix sources over time. ## Why This Matters Crucix currently produces sweeps and briefings, but operators need a persistent way to follow a thesis from first weak signal to confirmed regime shift. This feature turns the terminal from a live dashboard into an analyst workflow tool. ## Scope - Bug fix: No - New source: No - Dashboard/UI change: Yes - LLM/provider change: Optional - Other: New persistence and scoring workflow ## Proposed Behavior - Add a configurable list of scenarios/hypotheses with name, description, watched regions, watched source categories, keywords, and severity thresholds. - Each sweep evaluates scenarios against source output, delta signals, market data, and alert history. - Dashboard shows scenario state: dormant, watching, building, confirmed, invalidated. - Each scenario includes evidence links, last trigger time, confidence, and what would invalidate it. - Briefings include a short "Scenario Watchlist" section when one or more scenarios changed state. ## Acceptance Criteria - Scenario definitions can be stored in config or a small JSON file under operator-owned runtime state. - Missing or malformed scenario config degrades safely and does not break sweeps. - At least 3 built-in starter scenarios ship disabled or as examples. - Unit tests cover matching, scoring, state transitions, and malformed config. - README documents the workflow and example scenarios. ## Maintenance Impact No new external provider is required. This adds product complexity around state, thresholds, and dashboard rendering. Future source additions should declare which scenario categories they can influence. ## Additional Context This pairs naturally with the existing delta engine, `runs/` state, and Phase-1 memory store.

MrSphay added the enhancement research product labels 2026-05-17 12:26:23 +00:00

MrSphay commented

2026-05-17 12:38:27 +00:00

In Bearbeitung durch Codex auf Branch codex/issue-26-scenario-watchlist. Scope: Feature Scenario Watchlist: runtime JSON/config Beispiele, scoring/state engine, Dashboard/Briefing Surface, Tests/Doku. Runner-only: keine lokalen npm/node Laeufe.

MrSphay commented

2026-05-17 12:50:19 +00:00

PR geoeffnet: #36\n\nStatus: mergeable. Feature-Scope: Scenario Watchlist mit runtime runs/scenarios.json, drei deaktivierten Starter-Szenarien, state persistence unter runs/scenario-state.json, Scoring/State-Transitions, Dashboard-Panel und Briefing-Abschnitt bei State-Changes. Malformed config degradiert ohne Sweep-Abbruch. Runner-only: keine lokalen npm/node Tests.

PR geoeffnet: https://git.wilkensxl.de/MrSphay/intelligence-terminal/pulls/36\n\nStatus: mergeable. Feature-Scope: Scenario Watchlist mit runtime runs/scenarios.json, drei deaktivierten Starter-Szenarien, state persistence unter runs/scenario-state.json, Scoring/State-Transitions, Dashboard-Panel und Briefing-Abschnitt bei State-Changes. Malformed config degradiert ohne Sweep-Abbruch. Runner-only: keine lokalen npm/node Tests.

MrSphay closed this issue

2026-05-17 16:36:26 +00:00

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Reference: MrSphay/intelligence-terminal#26