223 lines
10 KiB
JavaScript
223 lines
10 KiB
JavaScript
// Delta Engine v2 — compares two synthesized sweep results and produces structured changes
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// Improvements: count metric thresholds, semantic TG dedup, configurable thresholds, null-safety
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import { createHash } from 'crypto';
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// ─── Default Thresholds ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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// Override via config.delta.thresholds in crucix.config.mjs
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const DEFAULT_NUMERIC_THRESHOLDS = {
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vix: 5, // % change to flag
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hy_spread: 5,
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'10y2y': 10,
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wti: 3,
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brent: 3,
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natgas: 5,
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unemployment: 2,
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fed_funds: 1,
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'10y_yield': 3,
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usd_index: 1,
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mortgage: 2,
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};
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const DEFAULT_COUNT_THRESHOLDS = {
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urgent_posts: 2, // need ±2 to matter (was 0 — any change)
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thermal_total: 500, // ±500 detections (was 0 — +1 was noise)
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air_total: 50, // ±50 aircraft
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who_alerts: 1, // any new WHO alert matters
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conflict_events: 5, // ±5 ACLED events
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conflict_fatalities: 10, // ±10 fatalities
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sdr_online: 3, // ±3 receivers
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news_count: 5, // ±5 news items
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sources_ok: 1, // any source going down matters
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};
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// ─── Metric Definitions ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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const NUMERIC_METRICS = [
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{ key: 'vix', extract: d => d.fred?.find(f => f.id === 'VIXCLS')?.value, label: 'VIX' },
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{ key: 'hy_spread', extract: d => d.fred?.find(f => f.id === 'BAMLH0A0HYM2')?.value, label: 'HY Spread' },
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{ key: '10y2y', extract: d => d.fred?.find(f => f.id === 'T10Y2Y')?.value, label: '10Y-2Y Spread' },
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{ key: 'wti', extract: d => d.energy?.wti, label: 'WTI Crude' },
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{ key: 'brent', extract: d => d.energy?.brent, label: 'Brent Crude' },
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{ key: 'natgas', extract: d => d.energy?.natgas, label: 'Natural Gas' },
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{ key: 'unemployment', extract: d => d.bls?.find(b => b.id === 'LNS14000000' || b.id === 'UNRATE')?.value, label: 'Unemployment' },
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{ key: 'fed_funds', extract: d => d.fred?.find(f => f.id === 'DFF')?.value, label: 'Fed Funds Rate' },
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{ key: '10y_yield', extract: d => d.fred?.find(f => f.id === 'DGS10')?.value, label: '10Y Yield' },
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{ key: 'usd_index', extract: d => d.fred?.find(f => f.id === 'DTWEXBGS')?.value, label: 'USD Index' },
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{ key: 'mortgage', extract: d => d.fred?.find(f => f.id === 'MORTGAGE30US')?.value, label: '30Y Mortgage' },
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];
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const COUNT_METRICS = [
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{ key: 'urgent_posts', extract: d => d.tg?.urgent?.length || 0, label: 'Urgent OSINT Posts' },
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{ key: 'thermal_total', extract: d => d.thermal?.reduce((s, t) => s + t.det, 0) || 0, label: 'Thermal Detections' },
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{ key: 'air_total', extract: d => d.air?.reduce((s, a) => s + a.total, 0) || 0, label: 'Air Activity' },
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{ key: 'who_alerts', extract: d => d.who?.length || 0, label: 'WHO Alerts' },
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{ key: 'conflict_events', extract: d => d.acled?.totalEvents || 0, label: 'Conflict Events' },
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{ key: 'conflict_fatalities', extract: d => d.acled?.totalFatalities || 0, label: 'Conflict Fatalities' },
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{ key: 'sdr_online', extract: d => d.sdr?.online || 0, label: 'SDR Receivers' },
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{ key: 'news_count', extract: d => (d.news?.length ?? d.news?.count) || 0, label: 'News Items' },
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{ key: 'sources_ok', extract: d => d.meta?.sourcesOk || 0, label: 'Sources OK' },
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];
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// Risk-sensitive keys: used for determining overall direction
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const RISK_KEYS = ['vix', 'hy_spread', 'urgent_posts', 'conflict_events', 'thermal_total'];
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// ─── Semantic Hashing for Telegram Posts ─────────────────────────────────────
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/**
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* Produce a normalized hash of a post's content.
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* Strips timestamps, normalizes numbers, lowercases — so "BREAKING: 5 missiles at 14:32"
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* and "Breaking: 7 missiles at 15:01" produce the same hash (both are "missile strike" signals).
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*/
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function contentHash(text) {
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if (!text) return '';
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const normalized = text
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.toLowerCase()
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.replace(/\d{1,2}:\d{2}(:\d{2})?/g, '') // strip times
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.replace(/\d+/g, 'N') // normalize all numbers
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.replace(/[^\w\s]/g, '') // strip punctuation
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.replace(/\s+/g, ' ')
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.trim()
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.substring(0, 100);
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return createHash('sha256').update(normalized).digest('hex').substring(0, 12);
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}
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// ─── Core Delta Computation ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
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/**
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* @param {object} current - current sweep's synthesized data
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* @param {object|null} previous - previous sweep's synthesized data (null on first run)
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* @param {object} [thresholdOverrides] - optional: { numeric: {...}, count: {...} }
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*/
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export function computeDelta(current, previous, thresholdOverrides = {}) {
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if (!previous) return null;
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if (!current) return null;
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const numThresholds = { ...DEFAULT_NUMERIC_THRESHOLDS, ...(thresholdOverrides.numeric || {}) };
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const cntThresholds = { ...DEFAULT_COUNT_THRESHOLDS, ...(thresholdOverrides.count || {}) };
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const signals = { new: [], escalated: [], deescalated: [], unchanged: [] };
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let criticalChanges = 0;
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// ─── Numeric metrics: track % change ─────────────────────────────────
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for (const m of NUMERIC_METRICS) {
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const curr = m.extract(current);
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const prev = m.extract(previous);
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if (curr == null || prev == null) continue;
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const threshold = numThresholds[m.key] ?? 5;
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const pctChange = prev !== 0 ? ((curr - prev) / Math.abs(prev)) * 100 : 0;
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if (Math.abs(pctChange) > threshold) {
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const entry = {
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key: m.key, label: m.label, from: prev, to: curr,
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pctChange: parseFloat(pctChange.toFixed(2)),
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direction: pctChange > 0 ? 'up' : 'down',
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severity: Math.abs(pctChange) > threshold * 3 ? 'critical' : Math.abs(pctChange) > threshold * 2 ? 'high' : 'moderate',
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};
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if (pctChange > 0) signals.escalated.push(entry);
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else signals.deescalated.push(entry);
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if (Math.abs(pctChange) > 10) criticalChanges++;
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} else {
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signals.unchanged.push(m.key);
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}
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}
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// ─── Count metrics: track absolute change (with minimum thresholds) ──
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for (const m of COUNT_METRICS) {
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const curr = m.extract(current);
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const prev = m.extract(previous);
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const diff = curr - prev;
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const threshold = cntThresholds[m.key] ?? 1;
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if (Math.abs(diff) >= threshold) {
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const pctChange = prev > 0 ? ((diff / prev) * 100) : (diff > 0 ? 100 : 0);
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const entry = {
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key: m.key, label: m.label, from: prev, to: curr,
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change: diff, direction: diff > 0 ? 'up' : 'down',
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pctChange: parseFloat(pctChange.toFixed(1)),
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severity: Math.abs(diff) >= threshold * 5 ? 'critical' : Math.abs(diff) >= threshold * 2 ? 'high' : 'moderate',
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};
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if (diff > 0) signals.escalated.push(entry);
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else signals.deescalated.push(entry);
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// Count metrics only critical if the change is extreme
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if (entry.severity === 'critical') criticalChanges++;
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} else {
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signals.unchanged.push(m.key);
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}
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}
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// ─── New urgent Telegram posts (semantic dedup) ──────────────────────
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const prevHashes = new Set(
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(previous.tg?.urgent || []).map(p => contentHash(p.text))
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);
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for (const post of (current.tg?.urgent || [])) {
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const hash = contentHash(post.text);
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if (hash && !prevHashes.has(hash)) {
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signals.new.push({
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key: `tg_urgent:${hash}`,
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text: post.text?.substring(0, 120),
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item: post,
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reason: 'New urgent OSINT post',
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});
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criticalChanges++;
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}
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}
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// ─── Nuclear anomaly state change ────────────────────────────────────
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const currAnom = current.nuke?.some(n => n.anom) || false;
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const prevAnom = previous.nuke?.some(n => n.anom) || false;
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if (currAnom && !prevAnom) {
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signals.new.push({ key: 'nuke_anomaly', reason: 'Nuclear anomaly detected', severity: 'critical' });
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criticalChanges += 5;
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} else if (!currAnom && prevAnom) {
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signals.deescalated.push({ key: 'nuke_anomaly', label: 'Nuclear Anomaly', direction: 'resolved', severity: 'high' });
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}
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// ─── Source health degradation ───────────────────────────────────────
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const currSourcesDown = current.health?.filter(s => s.err).length || 0;
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const prevSourcesDown = previous.health?.filter(s => s.err).length || 0;
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if (currSourcesDown > prevSourcesDown + 2) {
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signals.new.push({
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key: 'source_degradation',
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reason: `${currSourcesDown - prevSourcesDown} additional sources failing (${currSourcesDown} total down)`,
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severity: currSourcesDown > 5 ? 'critical' : 'moderate',
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});
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}
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// ─── Overall direction ───────────────────────────────────────────────
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let direction = 'mixed';
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const riskUp = signals.escalated.filter(s => RISK_KEYS.includes(s.key)).length;
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const riskDown = signals.deescalated.filter(s => RISK_KEYS.includes(s.key)).length;
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if (riskUp > riskDown + 1) direction = 'risk-off';
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else if (riskDown > riskUp + 1) direction = 'risk-on';
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return {
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timestamp: current.meta?.timestamp || new Date().toISOString(),
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previous: previous.meta?.timestamp || null,
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signals,
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summary: {
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totalChanges: signals.new.length + signals.escalated.length + signals.deescalated.length,
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criticalChanges,
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direction,
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signalBreakdown: {
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new: signals.new.length,
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escalated: signals.escalated.length,
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deescalated: signals.deescalated.length,
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unchanged: signals.unchanged.length,
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},
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},
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};
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}
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// Export thresholds for external config
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export { DEFAULT_NUMERIC_THRESHOLDS, DEFAULT_COUNT_THRESHOLDS };
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